US baseline macroeconomic scenario with Nielsen perspective
UPDATED: Quarterly Economic Outlook with COVID-19 Special Report
April 21, 2020
From pantry loading to increased product usage and short-term stock up, consumer behavior has undoubtedly been affected by COVID-19. But how will the pandemic affect consumer trends for the long term, and what does it mean for economic recovery?
In this discussion, Andrew Duguay, Chief Economist at Prevedere, provides a look at a baseline economic recovery scenario, perspective on how consumers react to economic shocks, and how current sentiment compares to that of the last recession.
Nicole Collida Davis, Nielsen SVP & US Brand Effectiveness Lead, highlights how consumer behavior has impacted the CPG industry, such as creating a more complex path to purchase, the three distinct product groups that are emerging, and how sales will stabilize at different points, depending on the category.
Key takeaways include:
- 2020 macroeconomic scenarios, given COVID-19
- Current consumer purchase intentions and attitudes compared to past economic shocks
- Special Nielsen data and analysis:
- US faced disruptive forces, both in-store and online
Online fulfillment pushed its limits
- COVID-19 has resulted in even more omnishopping
- 3 product groups are emerging
- What’s next for CPG
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Nicole Collida Davis, Nielsen SVP & US Brand Effectiveness Lead
Nicole leads the Brand Effectiveness Sales team at Nielsen, where she is responsible for creating differentiated value in the marketplace by measuring evolving consumer patterns, and more of what matters to her clients. She currently stands on the front lines for Nielsen as the company showcases solutions that connect online and offline performance, uncover blind spots, shape smarter markets, and enable growth.
Nicole is widely recognized for her commitment to creating an engaging workplace. She is an active member of Nielsen’s Engagement Champion Leadership Network, and builds on the positive opportunities that result from an inclusive and engaging workplace. She is a proud graduate of the University of Missouri, an avid college sports fan, and current resident of Santa Rosa Beach, FL with her husband, Shannon.
Andrew Duguay – Chief Economist Prevedere, Inc.
Andrew is a Chief Economist for Prevedere, a predictive analytics company that helps provide business leaders a real-time insight into their company’s future performance. Prior to his role at Prevedere, Andrew was a Senior Economist at ITR Economics. Andrew’s commentary and expertise have been featured in NPR, Reuters, and other publications.
Andrew has an MBA and a degree in Economics. He has received a Certificate in Professional Forecasting from the Institute for Business Forecasting and Certificates in Economic Measurement, Applied Econometrics, and Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting from the National Association for Business Economics.
About Prevedere, Inc.
Prevedere is a predictive analytics software company that delivers insights into future business outcomes based on current economic trends. Our predictive economic intelligence helps executives see what lies ahead for their business and solve for upcoming risks and opportunities. Our SaaS solutions apply the power of machine learning and predictive modeling to more than 2.5 million indicators of global economic and consumer activity. Prevedere customers include Fortune 500 industry leaders in retail, manufacturing, and consumer packaged goods. To learn more, visit www.prevedere.com and follow @Prevedere on Twitter.