Cosmetics leading indicators that enable market-validated models

Last Updated: October 11, 2023


External factors influence cosmetics industry performance. This blog overviews three leading indicators of consumption expenditures for cosmetics, perfumes, bath, skin care, and nail preparations.


Leading indicators for CPG: Cosmetics

Housing starts

Housing starts is a leading indicator for overall changes in the economic business cycle, including consumer spending. Economic weaknesses traditionally begin in the housing market and ripple through other industries.


Consumer sentiment

Consumer sentiment can be a predictor of inflation-adjusted consumer spending on cosmetics. Monitoring consumer sentiment can help anticipate shifts in the industry’s performance.


Spending plan

Female intentions to curb spending on cosmetics can be a leading indicator of future decline in inflation-adjusted spending on cosmetics. This data serves as an early indicator of potential changes in consumer behaviors.


How to create AI prediction models from leading indicators

Prevedere helps individual businesses identify their unique leading indicators and then create cause-and-effect AI prediction models and forecasts. Blending these models with internally generated forecasts ‘market validates’ any final demand and cost forecasts for planning needs.


Step 1: Leading indicators
Prevedere’s technology helps customers conduct a correlation analysis of their cosmetics sales against millions of leading indicators and economic signals.


Step 2: Models and forecasts
Prevedere’s modeling platform creates, simulates, backtests, refines, and ranks thousands of prediction models. The prevailing best model can generate monthly, quarterly, and annual forecasts for desired demand, cost, and price KPIs.


Contact Us: Talk to Prevedere

Prevedere helps companies leverage external factors unique to their business by combining global data, AI, and economic expertise to predict outcomes better.

Talk to Prevedere: Let’s discuss how leading indicators and economic predictive models apply to you and your CPG business.



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